By 2028, the Lunar Gateway space station will be orbiting the moon with people on it, during the Artemis IV mission. The advanced life support systems are slated to be integrated into the infrastructure of the Lunar Gateway and employed during Artemis program missions. These systems are part of NASA’s broader strategy to facilitate prolonged human presence on the Moon, providing critical life support functions such as air purification, water recycling, and waste management on both the Gateway and lunar surface habitats. The integration of these technologies is intended to test and prove the feasibility of long-term extraterrestrial habitation, setting the stage for future manned missions to Mars.

Analysis: The Artemis missions are a series of ongoing lunar missions run by NASA. The first Artemis mission was completed in 2022, when an uncrewed test flight orbited and flew beyond the Moon. The integration of advanced life support systems into the Lunar Gateway and Artemis missions represents a significant stride in the roadmap towards sustainable lunar colonization and further planetary exploration. This period of technological implementation and testing is crucial for developing the necessary infrastructure to support human life in extraterrestrial environments over extended periods.

Image above is more of an imagined future. The following is closer to what it will look like:

The barrels per day of oil used by humanity have been on the rise since its discovery in the mid-19th century. In 1950, the world consumed approximately 10 million barrels of oil per day. This figure rose significantly to about 60 million barrels per day by 1980 and further to around 75 million barrels per day by 2000. In 2019, just before the pandemic, global oil consumption peaked at about 99.7 million barrels per day. During the pandemic, consumption dipped, but it rebounded quickly. By 2023, global oil consumption reached approximately 102.21 million barrels per day, and it is expected to continue rising until around 2029, when it is projected to peak at about 105.7 million barrels per day. From this peak, oil consumption is anticipated to enter a gradual terminal decline. This plateauing of oil demand marks a significant turning point in the global energy narrative.​

Analysis: The reference year 2029 is significant due to a convergence of technological, economic, and environmental factors. The rapid growth in electric vehicle adoption, improving fuel economy standards, and an increasing emphasis on renewable energy are collectively reducing the reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, geopolitical factors and policy changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions are accelerating this transition. While the IEA’s forecast is for a peak in 2028, demand for oil in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation will remain robust. Therefore, I’m predicting the tipping point will occur one year later, with a fudge factor of +/- 2 years.​

My Strategy:
Invest in DUG inverse oil ETF at 30 day lows through 2035.
Invest in ICLN and CNRG solar ETFs at 30 day lows through 2035.
Invest in NEE and ENPH renewable stocks at 30 day lows through 2035.
Do not short large oil as they have the money to retool.

In 2030, NASA’s Europa Clipper arrives at Jupiter, ready to embark on an unprecedented exploration of Europa, one of the most intriguing moons in our solar system. This mighty spacecraft, equipped with an arsenal of cutting-edge instruments, will perform a series of daring flybys, meticulously mapping Europa’s icy crust and peering deep into its subsurface ocean. Clipper’s advanced radar will be able to penetrate the ice, measuring its thickness and potentially revealing hidden pockets of water. Sophisticated spectrometers will analyze the composition of Europa’s thin atmosphere, searching for biosignatures – chemical signatures that could hint at life beneath the ice.

The data collected by Clipper will be instrumental in answering the question that has captivated scientists for decades: does life exist on Europa? With a vast ocean of liquid water, the potential for energy sources, and a protective icy shell, Europa offers all the key ingredients for a habitable environment. While giant, bioluminescent creatures might be out of the picture for now, Clipper’s findings could reveal a hidden world teeming with microbial life. Imagine jellyfish-like organisms drifting through the currents, or heat-loving microbes thriving around hydrothermal vents on the ocean floor. The possibilities are as vast and captivating as the ocean itself, and with Clipper leading the way, we are on the verge of unraveling Europa’s secrets.

Human presence on Mars will transition from science fiction to reality with the successful establishment of the first permanent Martian colony.

Analysis: While initial crewed missions to Mars could potentially occur by 2029 or early 2030s, achieving a fully self-sustaining, permanent colony will take a bit longer. While 2033 is a bit overly ambitious, it is possible. A more realistic timeline for a sustainable colony is by 2039, but very likely by 2045.

Companies like SpaceX are already targeting an early timeframe. Even the United Arab Emirates’ plan to establish a settlement on Mars, well, by 2117, but that goal brings a certain reality to the project. NASA’s current plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface in 2024 and establish a sustainable presence on the lunar surface by 2028 also bring this project to the forefront. NASA’s goal it to send humans to Mars in the 2030s supporting the prediction of self-sustaining space exploration station by 2039.

By 2045 or so, we’ll reach a tipping point where 60% of the meat consumed is plant-based and lab-grown meats. By this date, the quality will exceed animal farming and be cheaper. The key to this tipping point is that the quality will be more consistent, taste as good as the best meats, but cost less than the cheapest meats. By 2100, over 90% of meat consumed will be plant-based or lab-grown meats.

Analysis: The choice of 2045 as the tipping point for this dietary transformation is grounded in several converging trends. The acceleration of technological advancements in food science is expected to continue, making alternative meats more appealing and accessible. Secondly, the trend of young people embracing it combined with the death of set-in-their-ways elder, will cascade the trend. Thirdly, the investors in the stock market will run from meat-based companies causing a collapse in the industry similar in impact to the tabacco industry. Forthly, the intensifying impact of climate change motivates stronger global regulatory actions and shifts in public sentiment towards more sustainable consumption practices. By 2100, we will have had three plus full generations of transition and adoption. The eating of slaughterhouse meats will be limited to the rich and esoteric and largely frowned upon by society. 

By 2090, the integration of androids into everyday human life may shift from the realms of science fiction to everyday reality. This shift will be driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, robotics, and societal acceptance. As we gaze into the next half-century, the path to achieving a 1:1 ratio of humans to androids presents both groundbreaking opportunities and formidable challenges. The odds of achieving a 1:1 ratio hinge on these critical factors, with the potential for either a harmonious integration or a conflicted coexistence shaping the late 21st century.

Speculative Timeline:
2040 to 2050: This period might see a surge in the production and implementation of androids in sectors where precision, efficiency, and risk management are paramount—such as healthcare, manufacturing, and disaster response. Governments begin to establish frameworks for android rights and responsibilities, sparking debates on ethics and the nature of intelligence.

2050-2060: As human lives become more enriched by this resource, android technology becomes more affordable and widespread, reaching into homes as caretakers and companions. By 2065, major urban areas report that androids make up approximately 25% of their operational workforce. This period also marks the onset of significant pushback from human labor groups, leading to the first global conference on Human-Android Economic Coexistence.

2070-2080: Social Normalization and Backlash. The android presence in personal and social settings becomes normalized. However, this integration is not seamless, as societal divisions emerge over android rights. The “Human First” movement gains momentum, advocating for strict limitations on android capabilities and roles. Simultaneously, a counter-movement pushes for complete android autonomy.

2080-2090: Technological Harmony or Discord? Breakthroughs in android emotional intelligence occur, allowing for deeper human-android relationships. These relationships challenge existing social norms and provoke a reevaluation of what it means to be “alive.” Androids start to participate in creative and decision-making processes, leading to joint human-android innovations.

2090: The Tipping Point. By 2090, the global ratio of androids to humans is approaching 1:1. This equilibrium brings new governance challenges, as androids seek—and in some regions, achieve—legal personhood. Economies adapt to a new labor paradigm, emphasizing creative and interpersonal skills where humans excel.

My Strategy:
None, too far out, but watching Optimus, a division of TSLA.
Also watching: SFTBY, HMC, TM, SSNLF, HYMTF
Likely to start investing by 2030 after reevaluating leaders.

Kardashev scale: Type I | Type II | Type III
(A framework introduced by the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in 1964.)

Essentially 100% renewable and/or clean energy: I have expanded Type I from merely capturing Earth’s energy to producing an equivalent amount of energy, focusing on renewable and clean sources. The goal is to match the potential energy output from all sources but achieved entirely through renewable or clean energy methods. While the focus is on renewable and clean energy, allowances might exist for minimal uses of traditional fuels, such as preserving vintage cars for cultural purposes. The broadening of the definition from merely capturing to producing energy enables advances in technology. So, while the original definition focused only on known renewable energy sources and technology imagined at the time, this new  approach enables potentially revolutionary methods such as advanced nuclear fusion, artificial photosynthesis, or other innovative means to generate power. This not only encompasses direct energy capture from natural sources but also the synthesis of new energy forms, making energy management more versatile and robust.

According to the original definition, this level of civilization can harness all the non-renewable energies like fossil fuels as well as all renewable sources like solar, wind, geothermal, and other natural energy sources. According to physicist Michio Kaku, achieving Type I status is a multi-millennial project that includes not only utilizing these energy resources but also theoretically controlling weather patterns and seismic activities. The original definition also proposed building cities on the ocean.

Reach: Homo sapiens expand to fully utilize Earth’s surface, including significant populations living underground and in orbit. Our reach extends to the Moon and Mars, where we occupy their surfaces and orbits. Agreements among diverse human groups facilitate genetic manipulation, allowing controlled evolution of Homo sapiens. This ensures that all genetic changes are consensual across all factions, giving us complete control over our evolutionary path.

Effects: No matter how we get to Type I, energy worries no longer exist and the energy needs of individuals are essentially free. At this stage, we have so much energy that no one on Earth pays to move their personal vehicles or power their home. Perhaps businesses will pay a very small fee to run their businesses up to a certain point. Beyond that, energy would cost more, but the energy needed for most entrepreneurial innovation would be within reach. This would include the energy needed to build and use vehicles around the globe. These vehicles would likely be built and maintained by AI-controlled robots. While costing a bit more, this would include many types of projects including building cities on the ocean, vehicles moving to and from the moon and space stations, and to and from Mars.

Estimates for when humanity might achieve Type I status—or its equivalent—typically range from the next 100 to 200 years. Michio Kaku suggests that we might reach Type I status within the next few centuries. The progression towards this status is evident in our increasing global energy consumption and advances in renewable energy technologies. 

By the year 2200, major world religions will have fully integrated empirical observation into their doctrines, acknowledging the importance of scientific understanding in exploring the mysteries of existence. This shift will mark a profound transformation in religious thought, where spiritual narratives are continuously updated to reflect the latest scientific discoveries. This new era of empirical spirituality will see religious teachings embrace the unknown not as a gap to be filled by faith alone but as an invitation to explore and understand through both scientific inquiry and spiritual contemplation. Religions will increasingly focus on harmonizing empirical evidence with spiritual beliefs, leading to a more enlightened and unified approach to understanding existence.

Analysis: The reference date of 2150 CE is chosen based on current trends in the dialogue between science and religion. Over the past century, there has been a growing movement within many religious communities to reconcile scientific discoveries with spiritual beliefs. For instance, the acceptance of the Big Bang theory by the Catholic Church and the increasing number of religious leaders advocating for environmental stewardship based on scientific data reflect this trend. By 2150, it is reasonable to expect that these dialogues will have matured significantly, laying the groundwork for a full integration of empirical observation into religious frameworks by 2200. This timeline is supported by the accelerating pace of scientific discovery and the corresponding willingness of many religious traditions to adapt and evolve in response to new knowledge.

The population of humans not living on land will exceed the population living on land. The non-surface population will live in floating cities, underground, on the bottom of the ocean, in orbiting space stations around Earth, the Moon, and Mars, as well as on the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. Potentially, there will also be populations living underground on Mars and the Moon if it turns out that living below the surface is more practical. There will likely be a few floating space stations between Earth and the Moon, and between Earth and Mars, and perhaps a few beyond Mars.

Analysis: As humanity approaches a population of 10.5 billion by 2100, we will begin to seriously explore how to fully maximize Earth and local space. The urgency will be driven by longer life and technological advancements that make our current AI aspirations look primitive. In preparation for the challenges of building permanent floating space stations beyond Mars, humanity will construct massive floating cities and underground cities, followed soon after by aquatic cities on the ocean floor. Simultaneously, we will perfect space station technology, including orbiting, surface, and underground habitats focusing on the Moon, Mars, and its two moons.

By the time humanity reaches biological immortality by about 2200, life in these exotic areas will become “normal.” People will die mainly from accidents or a refusal of medical treatment. They will live large portions of their first century in ocean-floating cities, underwater stations on the seafloor, and space stations. Starting in about four generations, some people will be born, raised, and die without ever having seen land on Earth. Their reality will be shaped by their environment, whether it is one of the ocean cities, an aquatic station on the sea floor, or a space station within view of Earth.

By 2350, within another ten generations or so, our bond to terrestrial Earth will be replaced with a bond to where they were born. As always, some people will migrate from one place to another for various reasons.

Viewpoint: The time from now to then will feel as distant as the Middle Ages feel to us today. Future generations will look back at us in the same way we look back at figures like Michelangelo, Copernicus, and William Shakespeare.

Vacations: Options for yearly vacations will include traditional natural destinations like forests, beaches, and islands, as well as entertainment-based destinations like Las Vegas, Disneyland, and Paris. If you live in one of the orbiting space stations or on the Moon, you will have access to your own Disneyland and Las Vegas attractions. Someone growing up in one of the aquatic stations on the ocean floor might venture yearly to the surface.

Beyond yearly vacations, once-in-a-lifetime adventures lasting nearly a year will include experiences like a Martian adventure, where you travel to the Moon, visit the large space stations between Earth and Mars, and explore the space stations orbiting Mars and its moons, Phobos and Deimos. You could then either visit the surface of Mars and/or its moons or venture out to the large space stations established beyond Mars. Naturally, your choice for a once-in-a-lifetime trip will depend on where you grew up. If you grew up on Mars or one of the distant space stations, your once-in-a-lifetime vacation might be a trip to Earth.

Timeline: 
2025-2035: Initial Martian and Lunar Bases. Space Tourism Begins.
2035-2050: Expansion of Orbital Stations. Underwater Habitats.
2050-2100: Space Station Network. Underground Cities. Increased Non-Surface Population.
2100-2150: Advanced Lunar and Martian Colonies. Permanent Underwater Cities.
2150-2200: Orbital Habitats. Interplanetary Trade and Travel. Cultural Shift.
2200-2250: Massive Space Stations. On-water, underwater, and underground cities.
2250-2300: Population Growth. Advanced Technologies.
2300-2350: Self-Sustaining Habitats. Interplanetary Colonization.
2450: Non-Surface Population Tipping Point.

By 3825, humanity will embark on terraforming Mars, a monumental task that will take decades, if not centuries, to complete. The primary objectives will be to create a livable atmosphere, oceans, and transform the top 18 inches of Martian soil into a fertile ecosystem, a stark reminder of the delicate biosphere on Earth. This process will involve introducing genetically engineered microorganisms, plants, and animals into suitable ecotopes, carefully crafted niche environments.

Cutting-edge technologies, including advanced robotics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and possibly nanotechnology, will be crucial to this endeavor. Autonomous robots will release greenhouse gases, followed by the creation of a breathable atmosphere using advanced gas processing technologies. Self-reproducing robots may build machines that generate an atmosphere, and colossal tree planters could introduce genetically modified organisms that thrive in the harsh Martian environment.

As the planet becomes more hospitable, human settlers will arrive, bringing innovative solutions for managing the Martian environment, such as climate engineering and geoengineering. Over the next thousand years, Mars will transform into a thriving hub of human activity, complete with sprawling cities, lush ecosystems, and a vibrant culture. This technological leap, combined with sophisticated climate engineering techniques, will set the stage for the gradual rebirth of Mars, turning the red planet green.

Analysis: Setting the commencement of terraforming 1,800 years into the future allows ample time for humanity to perform and adjust the necessary societal, ethical, and environmental analyses, ensuring a careful and thorough approach to this monumental task. This reference point is admittedly a guesstimate, but reflects the immense scale of the challenge and is based on a our current technological trajectory. It relies on the continued rapid progress in fields like space exploration, renewable energy, biotechnology, genetics, and AI. Terraforming is not a one-time project but an ongoing transformation. Even after jumpstarting the Martian atmosphere, it would take centuries, perhaps millennia, for the planet to reach a stable and self-sustaining state. During this time, constant monitoring and adjustments would likely be required, ensuring the terraforming process continues on a desired trajectory. At this point, we’ll have two planets, both evolving life on separate evolutionary paths unless genetic modifications are used to keep them aligned.

Kardashev scale: Type I | Type II | Type III

Renewable and clean power output equals our galaxy: I have redefined Type III to shift from merely capturing the energy of a galaxy to utilizing energy sources that produce power equivalent to that of our entire galaxy. This adaptation moves beyond the traditional focus on megastructures like Dyson Spheres or Swarms encasing multiple stars and opens possibilities for advanced galactic energy management methods.

Since Einstein’s equation E=mc² suggests that energy and matter are interchangeable, at this stage, civilizations could theoretically convert galactic matter into energy efficiently enough to produce power on a galactic scale. Using AI-controlled robots with nearly unlimited energy, they could gather materials, reproduce an army of robots, send them to the next source, while finishing up harnessing the current materials. This might include advanced forms of energy production such as harnessing the rotational energy of the galaxy, utilizing the gravitational forces of supermassive black holes, and perhaps the theoretical extraction of energy from dark matter or dark energy, which remain speculative but represent the frontier of cosmic-scale energy management.

According to the original definition, a Type III civilization represents an extraordinary leap in technological and energy management capabilities, where a civilization harnesses the energy output equivalent to that of its entire galaxy. This achievement would likely involve not just constructing but also managing complex networks of energy harvesters throughout the galaxy, potentially linking star systems with vast arrays of energy transmitters and receivers.

This interpretation of the original concept lends credibility to my modifications of Type I and II towards the notion of equivalent energy. At the very least, considering that Type III may involve harnessing energy equivalent to all outputs within a galaxy, my adjustments to Type I and II represent a logical extension rather than a radical departure from Kardashev’s original ideas.

Reach: Homo sapiens extend beyond our solar system to inhabit large, redundant space stations throughout this quadrant of the Milky Way galaxy and around its stars. While agreements among factions have kept most populations genetically similar, advancing as a collective when consensus is reached, interactions—including agreements and conflicts—with renegade groups that have evolved into different species are now commonplace. This includes the occassional major war.

Most scientists believe that evolutionary forces are abundant and common in life throughout the universe, leading many to posit that intelligent life has already evolved and is abundant across the cosmos. If these assertions hold true, this stage of human expansion would likely involve interactions not just with divergent human groups but also with extraterrestrial civilizations. These encounters could range from peaceful exchanges to conflicts, echoing the historical interactions among different Homo species on Earth. Such interstellar interactions, including occasional major wars, might become a regular aspect of life, as humanity navigates the complex dynamics of a galaxy inhabited by multiple intelligent species, each with its own culture, technology, and territorial claims.

Effects: With energy on a galactic scale essentially limitless, humanity could experience unprecedented advancements in living standards, technological capabilities, and cosmic exploration. With this level of access to energy, the possibilities for innovation and creativity could be boundless, likely driving monumental advancements in technology and enabling the development of societies across different star systems. The potential for constructing megastructures, inhabiting and terraforming new worlds, and possibly even manipulating the fundamental forces of the universe could become feasible.

The widespread availability of such energy could lead to a significant transformation in how civilizations view and distribute resources, potentially eradicating energy scarcity and dramatically reducing inequalities across star systems. As societies become interconnected through advanced galactic travel and communication technologies, a unified intergalactic cultural identity might emerge, profoundly changing our understanding of community and cooperation on a cosmic scale.

Estimates: While traditional estimates for achieving Type III status suggest hundreds of thousands to millions of years, focusing on producing equivalent energy rather than capturing all of a galaxy’s output could potentially shorten this timeline.

With the aid of previous advancements, type III might be acheivable in just 10,000 years from now. This relies on exponential growth in previous technologocal advancements. This optimistic scenario relies on exponential advancements in energy, quantum computing, AI, robotics, and other yet-to-be-invented technologies. This envisions a future where energy and our current obstables are not a limiting factor for civilizational development.

Geological and astronomical models predict that Earth is due for another glacial period within the next 100,000 years, possibly plunging much of the planet into ice. This event will significantly impact ecosystems, sea levels, and potentially human civilizations, depending on technological advancements and societal adaptations.

We can measure the movement of continents very precisely. Their future locations are a simple exercise in the empirical sciences. Predictive models like “Pangaea Proxima” (sometimes called “Next Pangaea” or “NeoPangaea”) predict the formation of a new supercontinent in about 250 million years, potentially sooner. This model sees “ALL” of Earth’s continents coming together to form a single massive landmass. Perhaps even with South America and Africa coming back together!

If this potential continent forms, it will be similar to the ancient supercontinent Pangaea, which existed about 335 to 175 million years ago during the late Paleozoic and early Mesozoic eras. This massive landmass could dramatically alter global climate patterns, biodiversity hotspots, and even human geopolitical landscapes. This model, the Pangaea Proxima model, is but leading model of several about how the continents will rearrange in the distant future.

The death of our Sun is estimated to occur in about 5 billion years. Around this point, life on Earth will become uninhabitable. There will likely be life here right up until there’s not. Most humans will have left the planet many millions of years prior to this point. Also, the merging of the Andromeda and Milky Way galaxies will have started about 500 million years earlier. 

Over an incredibly long timescale, the Sun’s white dwarf remnant could cool enough to become a black dwarf, a theoretical stellar remnant that emits no light. Although speculative, theoretical models give us insight into the lifespan of the Sun as a white dwarf. After transitioning into a white dwarf, the Sun is expected to cool and fade over an extraordinarily long period. It is theorized that, eventually, it will become a black dwarf — a cold, dark stellar remnant that no longer emits significant heat or light. This transformation could take place sometime after 1 quadrillion years — that’s 1,000 sets of a trillion years! Moreover, some estimates extend this timeline by a factor of up to 37, pushing the boundaries of our understanding of stellar evolution and the future of the cosmos. The eventual cessation of white dwarf stars, including our Sun, represents one of the universe’s far future events. However, these estimates are highly speculative, reliant on theoretical models of stellar cooling that project far beyond our current empirical observations. Given that the universe itself is not yet old enough for any black dwarfs to exist, this prediction is rooted more in our extrapolation of physical laws than in direct evidence.