By 2045 or so, we’ll reach a tipping point where 60% of the meat consumed is plant-based and lab-grown meats. By this date, the quality will exceed animal farming and be cheaper. The key to this tipping point is that the quality will be more consistent, taste as good as the best meats, but cost less than the cheapest meats. By 2100, over 90% of meat consumed will be plant-based or lab-grown meats.
Analysis: The choice of 2045 as the tipping point for this dietary transformation is grounded in several converging trends. The acceleration of technological advancements in food science is expected to continue, making alternative meats more appealing and accessible. Secondly, the trend of young people embracing it combined with the death of set-in-their-ways elder, will cascade the trend. Thirdly, the investors in the stock market will run from meat-based companies causing a collapse in the industry similar in impact to the tabacco industry. Forthly, the intensifying impact of climate change motivates stronger global regulatory actions and shifts in public sentiment towards more sustainable consumption practices. By 2100, we will have had three plus full generations of transition and adoption. The eating of slaughterhouse meats will be limited to the rich and esoteric and largely frowned upon by society.
